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سیاسی و روابط بین الملل::
مدل بیزی
For the past decade or so, the Bayesian models have been rigorously applied to various aspects of international relations involving uncertainty.
Apart from these efforts for general theory developments, however, scholars rarely applied Bayesian models to analyze real-world international events, although many of them involve situations where one or more players are uncertain about the other's preferences.
Therefore, these cases warrant independent studies utilizing Bayesian models.
By developing two Bayesian models of the Korean situation, we make some very interesting predictions and policy recommendations.
Next we build a Bayesian model in which U.S. policy makers are uncertain about the North's true intentions as in Model 1 above.
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